Germany decides to abandon nuclear power by 2022

[Zeonix]

Germany and I will be holding our breath.

 

[Avenger]

To be fair, solar was never an option in Germany. They have hydro and wind as options as far as I can tell. You need a lot of sun to make solar power efficient. Either way, I'm drinking with a nuclear physics' specialist who works at a nuclear reactor tomorrow, so I can probably check with him how expensive nuclear reactors are, and then compare to data on modern photovoltaic solar plants.

Edit:

Ah wait, he backed out, I forgot. Meh, I'll figure something out.

 

[Zeonix]

What?! Solar power isn't an option?!

Holy ****! My mind is blown!

 

[harSens]

Seems like just about everyone missed the political and economic ramifications of getting rid of their plants, so I'll throw my two cents in the ring.

To start off, 10 years isn't enough time for Germany to replace nuclear energy with renewable energy. About a third of Germany's energy comes from nuclear power, and it costs less than a third of wind power and less than one-twentieth of solar power. What does this mean? As far as this decade is concerned, replacing nuclear energy with renewable energy isn't economically feasible, so they'll have to look elsewhere for their energy needs. Elsewhere, of course, being surrounding nations.

Do you have a source for the one twentieth?

The way I see it, you have a few players about to try to sink their claws into Germany. First, you have France, which is always desperately trying to lash itself to Germany to prevent them from being a threat ever again. How do they go about doing this? They make themselves as essential to German plans as possible. France is about as pro-nuclear as a nation gets, so I don't doubt they'll start building extra reactors in order to export as much energy as they can to fill in the gap Germany hamfistedly created. They've already been doing this to a degree, but you can expect them to ramp up their efforts.

I would be quite surprised if German voters would go for this, especially since France has this nasty habit of placing their nuclear power plants at the German border.

After France, you have Russia. Russia has been trying to secure a cement a relationship with Germany for forever and a day now, and this could finally be their ticket. Why? Such a relationship would serve to solve many of Russia's economic, military and demographic problems. Also, the two nations would essentially neutralize all of Europe, leaving Russia to do basically whatever the hell it wanted as there'd really be no one to enforce "anti-Russian" policies (which sounds worse than it actually is as these types of policies tend to benefit both America and Europe). At the very least, we prefer Germany to remain neutral when it comes to Russia. But since we're focused and involved in the Islamic world, we can't really do much in that theatre other than politely ask our friends for a favor.

In any case, Russia. So they have the Nord Stream pipeline which bypasses all the transit states between Russia and Germany, and is scheduled to go online in 2012 (currently in the process of final testing). It should produce 55 cubic meters of natural gas per year. That's enough to replace half of the electricity produced by nuclear power in Germany. All Germany would have to do is build a few natural gas-burning power plants, and they'd be good to go.

Russian natural gas currently has to run through a bunch of shady ex Soviet states. Their new piping will somewhat fix that. Still, in Europe, Russia is regarded as less trustworthy than EU-partners, and they have already shown that they're not afraid of shutting down their gas at a whim.

Finally, we have the dark horse. Mother****ing Poland. Poland is pretty much outclassed in every possible way by the other two nations, but they have a trump card. See, they refuse to get with the times. Most of their energy demands are met by coal. Coal is cheap. Dirt cheap. Were Germany to choose coal to replace that energy gap, they'd need only to construct a few coal plants, which can go up in a year or two and coast pennies next to nuclear power plants which cost several billion euros and can take anywhere from 5 years to a decade to construct. It's dirty, and its politicaly incorrect, but its there.

Perhaps.

So you have France who needs to make itself important to Germany so that they'll never attack again, you have Russia who wants to make Germany its partner so it can have free reign to do as it wishes, and you have Poland stuck in the middle between a resurgent Germany and a resurgent Russia, and the overwhelming feeling that they're going to get raped any day now. France has a politically attractive plan that is economically expensive, you have the Russians who already have the fuel source ready for the picking, but would require making a deal with the devil, and you have Poland which has a politically unattractive plan that is economically dirt cheap. Also, the German plan, which is stupid. All have long-term consequences, so it'll be interesting to see which Germany goes with.

You missed quite a few options. There is the Netherlands, who is sitting on a huge natural gas bubble and is probably willing to sacrifice some nature to sell it to our biggest trade partner. Part of that gas bubble is in Germany too. Then there is Denmark, re-known for their offshore energy production using windmills. There is the other Scandinavian countries who are using hydra-energy and need most of it only at night to warm their houses. Hydra energy can probably also be bought from countries around the Alps. Then there is Spain, one of the leading countries in Europe in solar energy, who is experimenting with all kinds of alternative solar energy plants.
edit: it seems that Germany is not so energy efficient (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany), so something can be gained there. Then there is demographics: over the next say 10-40 years, the baby boom generation will be dieing, which will lead to less resource consumption in general.

 

[Zeonix]

Do you have a source for the one twentieth?

Hyperbole, but this article goes a long way to expressing how inefficient photovoltaics are in Germany:

http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/03/doing_the_math_comparing_germa.shtml

I would be quite surprised if German voters would go for this, especially since France has this nasty habit of placing their nuclear power plants at the German border.

Which is precisely why it isn't a bad idea. The reactors are already there. Not using existing plants owned and maintained by another nation out of a false notion of bettering the world isn't going to make them disappear. The only reason why it isn't the number one choice is because it'd be more expensive than using natural gas or coal.

Russian natural gas currently has to run through a bunch of shady ex Soviet states. Their new piping will somewhat fix that. Still, in Europe, Russia is regarded as less trustworthy than EU-partners, and they have already shown that they're not afraid of shutting down their gas at a whim.

The purpose of the new pipeline is to bypass all of those nations. Also, without getting into it, let's no forget that Russia's shadow has once again been cast on just about all of its former territories.

As for trust issues, that and future relationships is the main concern when debating whether or not to take the easy way out of powering the nation.


Perhaps.

If Germany chooses coal over nuclear power, they need to just shut up about renewable energies forever.

You missed quite a few options. There is the Netherlands, who is sitting on a huge natural gas bubble and is probably willing to sacrifice some nature to sell it to our biggest trade partner. Part of that gas bubble is in Germany too. Then there is Denmark, re-known for their offshore energy production using windmills. There is the other Scandinavian countries who are using hydra-energy and need most of it only at night to warm their houses. Hydra energy can probably also be bought from countries around the Alps. Then there is Spain, one of the leading countries in Europe in solar energy, who is experimenting with all kinds of alternative solar energy plants.

If the idea is to have to take a little bit from every surrounding country, be less efficient and cost more, this is probably the way to go. As it stands, replacing a quarter of their energy demands with the scraps of other countries probably isn't the best way to go. The goal is to meet and exceed energy demands. Not to kinda maybe be at the limit, and hope someone doesn't turn on an AC.

edit: it seems that Germany is not so energy efficient (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany), so something can be gained there. Then there is demographics: over the next say 10-40 years, the baby boom generation will be dieing, which will lead to less resource consumption in general.

Forcing a resurgent first-world nation to buckle down isn't much of a strategy. Neither is waiting for everyone to die, and hoping they aren't replaced by their descendants and immigrants.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany#cite_note-27
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/03/doing_the_math_comparing_germa.shtml

Some interesting stats on photovoltaics in either article.

 

[harSens]

Which is precisely why it isn't a bad idea. The reactors are already there. Not using existing plants owned and maintained by another nation out of a false notion of bettering the world isn't going to make them disappear. The only reason why it isn't the number one choice is because it'd be more expensive than using natural gas or coal.

That will only work if France has enough surplus nuclear power. I'm not so sure if the French population would be so happy to build new nuclear power plants for Germany.

If the idea is to have to take a little bit from every surrounding country, be less efficient and cost more, this is probably the way to go. As it stands, replacing a quarter of their energy demands with the scraps of other countries probably isn't the best way to go. The goal is to meet and exceed energy demands. Not to kinda maybe be at the limit, and hope someone doesn't turn on an AC.

As you said, the Russian option will only cover half of Germany's need, provided that all that natural gas is used for electricity and the old gas pipes remain in use. Your other option was to use scraps from France... Since the European energy market is completely open now, prices are relatively transparent and those 'scraps' could be provided by German energy companies in other countries as well.

Forcing a resurgent first-world nation to buckle down isn't much of a strategy. Neither is waiting for everyone to die, and hoping they aren't replaced by their descendants and immigrants.

I'm not saying they should buckle down or wait for everyone to die. I'm just saying that it is not so unlikely that the German/European heavy industry and the German population will shrink in the coming decade. That, combined with more efficient energy use that comes with modern houses, office buildings and machines will lead to less energy demand. It might be good to plan for that rather that haphazardly building windmill farms, coal plants or nuclear power plants.

Interesting read on Germans energy laws (also explains Avenger's solar cells sell as crack comments):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Act

Solar energy, the efficient way:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_tower

 

[Zeonix]

That will only work if France has enough surplus nuclear power. I'm not so sure if the French population would be so happy to build new nuclear power plants for Germany.


As you said, the Russian option will only cover half of Germany's need, provided that all that natural gas is used for electricity and the old gas pipes remain in use. Your other option was to use scraps from France... Since the European energy market is completely open now, prices are relatively transparent and those 'scraps' could be provided by German energy companies in other countries as well.


I'm not saying they should buckle down or wait for everyone to die. I'm just saying that it is not so unlikely that the German/European heavy industry and the German population will shrink in the coming decade. That, combined with more efficient energy use that comes with modern houses, office buildings and machines will lead to less energy demand. It might be good to plan for that rather that haphazardly building windmill farms, coal plants or nuclear power plants.

Interesting read on Germans energy laws (also explains Avenger's solar cells sell as crack comments):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Act

Solar energy, the efficient way:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_tower

I covered France already. If Germany were to go the France route, they'd build more reactors in a heartbeat. They don't see anything wrong with nuclear power, and its in the best interest of their national security to do so. That isn't even something to argue. It's already on the table. No one is haphazardly building anything, because the infrastructure already exists for the most part. It's simply whether or not to exploit whats available versus powering your nation on a dream. It's when you want to start importing energy from australia (hyperbole) that you need to build infrastructure and all kinds of ridiculous **** that's going to destroy your marketshares.

As for the EEG, I already posted this, but I'll do so again:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany#Criticism

The BMU responded to it, but it doesn't make solar power seem like it's the shizznizz.

And again, as far as solar polar is concerned, especially vs. nuclear power:

http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/03/doing_the_math_comparing_germa.shtml

As for the solar tower, it's Spain, one of the warmest and sunniest nations in Europe. I don't know that that's a fair comparison considering how little the Sun appears to like Germany.

 

[harSens]

I'm not saying the EEG is a good idea, however, it's in place, artificially makes local solar power affordable and apparently it's hard to get rid of.

Not a single country is Europe is gonna be able to cough up 25% of Germany's energy needs easily. Having France build up 17 nuclear power plants in 10 years is quite a technological challenge for them, furthermore, both the French and the German population will not be happy about it. I don't see Poland pull off a million (hyperbole) coal power plants and coal mines in 10 year either. Russia can potentially cover half, as you said earlier. The Netherlands, Denmark and countries in the Alps are right across the border for Germany. Power lines from Scandinavia already run to the Netherlands and Germany already owns half of our energy companies anyways, so that's not too far fetched. Connecting Germany to the Southern European countries should be possible, if they're not already connected, especially because most south European countries will be needing (or already received) big financial favors from Germany.

 

[Zeonix]

I'm not saying the EEG is a good idea, however, it's in place, artificially makes local solar power affordable and apparently it's hard to get rid of.

Not a single country is Europe is gonna be able to cough up 25% of Germany's energy needs easily. Having France build up 17 (source?) nuclear power plants in 10 years is quite a technological challenge for them, furthermore, both the French and the German population will not be happy about it (source?). I don't see Poland pull off a million (hyperbole) coal power plants and coal mines in 10 year either. Russia can potentially cover half, as you said earlier. The Netherlands, Denmark and countries in the Alps are right across the border for Germany. Power lines from Scandinavia already run to the Netherlands and Germany already owns half of our energy companies anyways, so that's not too far fetched. Connecting Germany to the Southern European countries should be possible, if they're not already connected, especially because most south European countries will be needing (or already received) big financial favors from Germany.

I think the bottom line is Germany wants to be partners with someone they don't intend to attack this century. That really only leaves Russia, as they get theirs in 2120.

 

[harSens]

Source is first post in this thread. Germany is getting rid of 17 nuclear reactors, which means France would have to build the equivalent of those 17 reactors (could be less with modern/larger reactors). France currently has 59 reactors, so this would mean building over a 4th of that extra.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France, see public opinion and recent German elections resulting in Angela Merkel's change of heart on nuclear power.

 

[Zeonix]

France has stated quite bluntly that the nuclear power is the future, and they would continue to pursue it:

Germany's largest neighbor, France—where nuclear energy makes up three-quarters of the electricity mix—said Ms. Merkel's move wouldn't sway its nuclear policy. "I respect the choice that Germany made," French Prime Minister François Fillon said in Strasbourg on Monday, but "it's not the choice that we are making—we think that nuclear energy is a solution for the future."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576354752218810560.html

Considering Germany's newest reactor is 20 years old, I'm fairly certain the French could create far more efficient reactors in the next decade, especially since the US is also about to revive it's nuclear industry, creating some serious potential for innovation and partnership between the two nations (Obviously, the UK is thrown in that mix, but we've ignored them thus far so why stop now?). So, in short, unless the French intend to build reactors using 20+ year old technology (again, the German's newest reactor is 20 years old), a quarter/17 reactors is a bit of a stretch.

On a side note, this is my final post on this forum until Hybrid's return. He was my anchor, and now that he's taken sail, I think I'll move on as well.

 

[Avenger]

I'm pretty sure Germany will meet most of its energy requirements (replacing the nuclear, I mean) with wind power and solar power, after reviewing several sources. They might import a bit more coal to supplement what they already use, though.