Ps3 to Win Next-gen War

[ZeroNightmare]

Analyst: PS3 to win next-gen war
The Yankee Group predicts 30 million PS3s, 27 million Xbox 360s, and 11 million Wiis sold in North America by 2011.
By Tor Thorsen, GameSpot
Posted Aug 17, 2006 1:07 am GMT
If you're a game-industry analyst looking to get some free publicity, the easiest way seems to be to issue a provocative press release predicting the victor of the next-gen console war. Case in point: The Yankee Group, a Boston-based firm that today made a bold forecast about which of the big three console makers will come out on top.

Who's the lucky company? Despite widespread unhappiness with the PlayStation 3's high price, the Yankee Group predicts that Sony will come out on top. "Microsoft is off to a fast start, launching the Xbox 360 nearly 12 months before the PlayStation 3," the company said in a statement. "However, by the time third-generation consoles reach market maturity in 2011, the PlayStation 3 will once again be the market leader."

How badly does the firm think Sony will beat its competitors? The Yankee Group is forecasting that Sony will sell 30 million PS3s over the next five years in North America, attaining a 44 percent market share. It sees Microsoft coming in second with 27 million units, or a 40 percent market share, which it will attain by "put[ting] significant price pressure on Sony during the PS3's lifecycle." As for Nintendo, the company predicts the Wii will keep the same roughly 16 percent market share it currently holds by selling 11 million Wiis over five years.

"With a growing installed base of connected consoles, content owners are beginning to recognize the potential video game consoles offer as a distribution channel," said Michael Goodman, Yankee's senior analyst for media and entertainment strategies. "Additionally, these platforms will serve as a strong medium for advertising, validating the growing market for in-game and around game advertising."

 

[Kaination]

Please don't turn this into a total Console-war thread, I want to have a decent console discussion for once.

--

Personally, I think Wii is going to pull up on top. The only way I can see PS3 winning is if they lower their price in the next 5 years. I've asked a lot of people at school if they'll get a PS3, almost 95% of answers were because "They cant afford that kind of money"

Thuough, when I get a job, I'm blowing the first 2k on computer upgrades/consoles

 

[LiteNET]

and since we all know that it is gooing to turn into one, this is closed

...Then I'll close it when and IF it turns into a 'console war'. No rules about pre-empting console arguments are in effect, so I'm going to reopen this thread, for now. And that's open for everyone -- even people posting to disagree. --Pride

 

[Kurt`]

Pretty sure Sony isn't going to win ****, unless they pull off some amazing stuff to woo consumers between now and release, and I don't see that happening

They seem to be banking too much on the insane popularity of the PS2, and the legions of fanboys it has generated. I think they're in for a surprise though. If you abuse your customers for long enough, they will leave (as Microsoft is soon to find out with Vista).

 

[ZeroNightmare]

whats wrong with vista? i dont have it. all i knew is that it made things look pretty.

 

[Promiscuous Girl]

Well alright, let's see-- i can't help but notice that the average joe in the U.S. is a graphic whore. They want nothing but to have instant gratification in terms of change in graphics. It will take them lots of time to love the Wii, where as the XBOX 360 and Playstation 3 gives them what they want they want initially of course. The Playstation 3 carries innovation in it's controller as well, similar to that of the Wii-- and has 40x more power, what does Nintendo have? Price? Name recognition? I can't forget that Sony is also the master of marketing, they could easily make it look like Nintendo stole thier idea to make the Wii controller. They could also make it look like it was their innovation to begin with for the next(new)-gen gaming, and not Nintendo's.

If my womens intuition is correct, i have a feeling it will be the same with the Wii as it was with the previous two-- at first it will enjoy some 3rd party success. Then the companies will abandon it the moment they realize their games simply sell terribly and fail to top Nintendo's quality gaming titles-- mainly because Nintendo fails to give them the proper space to shine.

But on the Wii's side of the fence-- i think the DS is Nintendo's best console ever and it has one of the best games lineups ever in a handheld console. The reason why Nintendo is in "top form" is because they are genuinely threatened by the PSP taking away Nintendo's only profitable market. Nintendo stepped up the DS development and unleashed and awesome lineup of strong games. They also got developers making games on it that haven't touched Nintendo consoles in a while (SquareEnix, Atlus, Konami). There's a strong chance that this could continue straight to the Wii.

That is due to competition, they stepped up and Nintendo is at it's best right now. Before that, with a Monopoly the Nintendo handhelds had fairly poor 3rd party games (in terms of quality) and a very lacking linuep in 1st party. With the DS Nintendo has some of the strongest 3rd party games ever for a modern Nintendo console and some of the strongest gaming lineups ever for games. This is Nintendo in top form, doing what they do best. All it took was a beating from Sony in the console world to hand them some humble pie and the fear that Sony would give them a beating again making them do their best. Of course the irony is that it is now Sony that needs to get beat to get a share of that humble pie, just my opinion though.

But to continue, generally if you appeal to Nongamers, you win the battle. Just look at the DS sales in Japan, it is so high and it continues to gain massive momentum. Do you think the DS sales are because hardcore gamers want the console? Nope, it is because grannies, younger women, kids, and moms and dads want to buy the console. But the DS also proves that in the USA and Europe that graphics are still king. Why does the far superior game library of the DS barely beating out the PSP in both of the western continents. That is because in America, people care about pretty graphics over actual gaming(speaking only in reference to casuals and non-gamers).

If games did beat graphics, the DS would be outselling the PSP by 500,000 every single month in the North American market. As of Fangirl of the Big N, I want to put alot hope into Nintendo's Domination.

But I have bought into it with the N64 and especially with the Gamecube. Everyone was saying that Nintendo would dominate now that they use an optical format and now that they have and army of 3rd party support.

That quickly dried up once they realised their 3rd party games sold terribly on the console. The Playstation 3 will have some issues because of it's price, but when the price begins to drop significantly, then it's pretty much over in my opinion. Also, i strongly about the Wii only pulling 11 million-- i think it's rather preposterous, to really have such a belief, that it won't outsell the Gamecube in the U.S. during a five year lifespan. I can see that happening in two years flat.

But either way, im going to go with Playstation 3 winning the U.S. market overall(maybe by 10 to 15 million at the most)-- Wii coming in a rather comfortable second place-- and the XBOX 360 coming in third. But when it's all set and done everywhere, Nintendo will not only have the most profits, they will have this console race won, this time around.

 

[Sonic the Vampire]

I'll stick with my original hypothesis about playstation 3's release boosting Xbox 360 sales and say Xbox is going to edge out over Playstation. Besides the fact that they already have a 'healthy' player base, they're 2/3rd the price for the same graphical power. Gamers don't want to think 3-4 years ahead when they buy their system, and unless they're picking it up for one of the sony exclusive titles (e.g. not parents) the cost difference is going to win support for Xbox. Xbox will also have a bazillion more titles when PS3 launches, whether they are crappy or not. PS3's release should boost Xbox sales this christmas.

 

[ZeroNightmare]

i dont know, ps3 is going to have a few pretty amazing launch titles.

 

[Babyboy]

i dont know, ps3 is going to have a few pretty amazing launch titles.

i dont agree, their whole launch lineup is horrible.

 

[wheres_]

i dont know, ps3 is going to have a few pretty amazing launch titles.

Please list them, I fail to recall any- at all.

But either way, im going to go with Playstation 3 winning the U.S. market overall(maybe by 10 to 15 million at the most)-- Wii coming in a rather comfortable second place-- and the XBOX 360 coming in third. But when it's all set and done everywhere, Nintendo will not only have the most profits, they will have this console race won, this time around.

I concur, period.

 

[ZeroNightmare]

Fatal Inertia at least, that game sounds pretty cool. Well... thats all i can remember, i was thinking metal gear and tekken 5 for some reason.

i goofed.

 

[Promiscuous Girl]

# Bladestorm: The Hundred Years' War (KOEI)
# Call of Duty 3 (Activision)
# EA Sports Fight Night Round 3 (Electronic Arts)
# Fatal Inertia (KOEI)
# Full Auto 2: Battlelines (SEGA)
# Madden NFL 07 (Electronic Arts)
# Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (Activision)
# NBA Live 07 (Electronic Arts)
# Resistance: Fall of Man (Sony CE)
# Ridge Racer 7 (Namco Bandai)
# Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 (Electronic Arts)
# Tony Hawk's Project 8 (Activision)
# Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom (Sony Online)
# Sonic the hedgehog

That's the launch lineup in full so far for the NA window. I read somewhere that Sony confirmed yesterday that their will be two heavy hitters making the launch lineup-- their said to be revealed at TGS and there will surely be alot more announcements and confirmations revealed within the next several weeks, which was also stated. While i feel their launch linup simply can't hold a candle to the Wii's, it's certainly not all that bad.

 

[ZeroNightmare]

i think they should stop making those sonic games...

i saw a video for it... its the same run around and get ring crap with sharper textures and its shiny....

i'm sure metal gear will be a launch though, and i hope tekken 6.

 

[Scruff]

So basically, whoever wrote that is just guessing how well the PS3 will sell? Is there any actual basis for those statements? If it's that launch line-up then I think he's way off base. There's not one game in that list that would necessitate me spending that much money on a console.

Maybe if there was a game in there that gave you a blowjob while you played, but then I'd still be reluctant, since it IS Sony dishing out the tricks. :/

No trying to sound like a pro-Wii, anti-PS3 fanboy, but the Wii is the only console that's actually piqued my interest as a gamer. I 'predict' (i.e. guess) that the Wii will win. And you can quote that on other forums as fact too, if you like.

 

[KyoKusanagi]

Big Sony fan here and I still reckon the Wii will take some beating. The PS3 will sell, it'll just take a miracle and a giant price drop to move as many units as they anticipate.

Here's looking forward to a memorable year in console gaming!

 

[wheres_]

Indeed, but sony are going to be losing so much money selling the ps3 as "cheap" as it will be. Further price drops are just going to increase on the massive losses they already face to make. Nintendo's console however is cheaper to produce and the losses they make will minimal, So if sony does manage to sell as many consoles as nintendo they will still come off second best in terms of profit.

 

[Promiscuous Girl]

Maybe if there was a game in there that gave you a blowjob while you played

I Lol'd. That was kinda random.

i think they should stop making those sonic games...

i saw a video for it... its the same run around and get ring crap with sharper textures and its shiny....

That's pretty much true. They are not new material-- just like Mario, Zelda, MP games and ect-- they are games that took a different spin on the same genre, and they continue to score huge with them. And yet, i still can't get enough of them myself. That's what i love about them to be honest.

i'm sure metal gear will be a launch though, and i hope tekken 6.

Im sorry to disappoint, but sadly, MGS will not anywhere near done in time for launch. Infact, you shouldn't expect to see it until late 2007 or early 2008. You can expect Tekken around the middle of 2007 or late 2007.

 

[Big Kyle]

and since we all know that it is gooing to turn into one, this is closed

...Then I'll close it when and IF it turns into a 'console war'. No rules about pre-empting console arguments are in effect, so I'm going to reopen this thread, for now. And that's open for everyone -- even people posting to disagree. --Pride

Did someone honestly just step up to LS?
If I remember correctly, only an admin could stop LS..since Super Mod > Mod.

I wasn't trying to 'step up' to anybody, only trying to preserve people's freedom of speech is all. I don't think that the VG forum--which is one of the most well behaved, really--should have to be treated with that kind of extremity. But in case you were wondering I spoke with Majin_You before I reopened the thread, anyhow. --Pride


PS3 has Assassins Creed, and the Final Fantasy games...dont really care for any other system imo.

You'd best not be trying to stir up trouble between my moderators. I think we can handle the 'chain of command' ourselves. ~Boyster

 

[wheres_]

Assassins Creed is also on Xbox360 and PC I think (correct me if i'm wrong), and Final Fantasy died inside some years ago...

 

[Babyboy]

wasnt that ps3 suppose to have 4-d graphics ?