Blu-Ray has won, depending on how you view the "HD war." As of yet, no format has achieved mainstream acceptance, because the majority of people don't have HDTVs to take advantage of it.
In the long-run, as in--thinking more than 10 years down the road--hard drive capacities and the average amount of bandwidth a consumer has--will increase exponentially, while Blu-Ray has a set specification that will become obsolete.
I just don't see Blu-Ray taking over before direct, digital downloads become the standard. /shrug