Did Blu-ray just win the format war?

[Quagmire]

Perhaps not wanting to be the last off a sinking ship, Toshiba could soon be abandoning the HD DVD format it helped bring to market, if the Hollywood Reporter is to be believed.

According to the report’s sources, Toshiba will be pulling the plug on its HD DVD format sometime in the coming weeks. The official word from Toshiba, predictably, is that it is still behind HD DVD as the format of choice.

"Based on its technological advancements, we continue to believe HD DVD is the best format for consumers, given the value and consistent quality inherent in our player offerings," said Jodi Sally, Toshiba’s VP of marketing.

Interestingly enough, Toshiba didn’t completely put to rest any ideas that the company could change its stance in the format war. "Given the market developments in the past month," continued Sally, "Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players."

Possibly urging Toshiba to drop HD DVD are the recent events transpired since Warner Bros. announced at CES 2008 that it would go Blu-ray Disc exclusive this summer. Most recently, online rental giant Netflix announced that it too would be dropping HD DVD stock, while Best Buy would begin to push Blu-ray Disc as the preferred format. With most publishing companies moving to Blu-Ray, the future really doesn't seem so bright for HD-DVD unless there is sufficient consumer demand for more releases.

In what could be the final nail in the coffin for the format, Wal-Mart today announced its plans to drop HD DVD players and software stock starting this June.


02/16/08 Update:
Reuters cites an NHK Japan source stating that Toshiba will be officially pulling the plug on HD DVD as early as next week. "We have entered the final stage of planning to make our exit from the next generation DVD business," said the source, who asked not to be identified.

Discuss!

I suppose however that this was inevitable as Blu-ray would eventually win. This, however, could be met with criticism with consumer that actually bought the cheaper HD-DVD players, especially when Toshiba and Walmart decided to cut their prices on their players dramatically which did get quite a few sales. The only way thing I can see to continue HD-DVD is for sales as a cheaper alternative (which it already is of course), and perhaps up-scaling on certain players of 4:3 content. For HD-DVD to survive, there'd have to be suffcient consumer demand for more titles to be released, but a lot of publishing houses now seem to have their hearts set on Blu-Ray.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Yes, yes they did.

 

[Quagmire]

Heh, one format war ends and then one begins!

Not exactly that we purchase everything =P.

 

[Smith]

HD Downloads won't be competition for BR for a long time.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Downloads will never compete with a physical disc.

There are too many non-technological people who will never grasp streaming a video to their TV.

And then the people who prefer having a physical copy of their purchase.

And don't even get me started on delivery and storage. So what happens when your hard-drive runs out of space? Can't download any more movies? The only way you can run out of a space with DVD's/Blu-Ray discs, is running out of space to put them

Downloads will not kill Blu-Ray.

This article sums it up nicely.

 

[Deverz]

Apart from HD DVD's being cheaper and Blu-Ray having more space

Was there any other difference?

 

[Quagmire]

Downloads will never compete with a physical disc.

While that is true in the sense of purchases, think of it economically. As already obvious, the publishes loses out on a sale every time someone that wants the publisher's content downloads it off the internet. The publisher, distributor and store all lose out on profit which is hence why anti-piracy measures are to some extent put into place, to prevent ripping or format shifting (Not that hard to get around if you know how to anyway though), all it really costs you is your monthly bandwidth and your monthly internet bill. I don't really think that you can have paid vs free as a category as it's really open to interpretation.

The only legal retail competitor that Blu-ray has now are DVDs, which quite obviously has a broad market as most consumers have some form of a dvd player or another.

And then the people who prefer having a physical copy of their purchase.

And don't even get me started on delivery and storage. So what happens when your hard-drive runs out of space? Can't download any more movies? The only way you can run out of a space with DVD's/Blu-Ray discs, is running out of space to put them

Simple, just purchase another hard drive or seek alternative means of making free space. That's really a one brainer, people can also have physical copies of their own data if they so desire for a range of purposes.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Simple, just purchase another hard drive or seek alternative means of making free space. That's really a one brainer, people can also have physical copies of their own data if they so desire for a range of purposes.

You're forgetting that a alot of people are technologically ignorant, and barely grasp the functions of their DVD player beyond putting in the disc, closing the tray, and pressing the play option at the title screen.

 

[Chakra-X]

Plus some people may want to watch it on a different TV, at a different house, and I sure hate having to worry about how much space is left. And then there is the initial download, which could take a certain amount of time.

 

[Deverz]

Apart from HD DVD's being cheaper and Blu-Ray having more space

Was there any other difference?

Penny for your thoughts?

 

[Skiwan]

To me it was always a fact of the higher capacity disk will be the winner. More space means more content, more options, etc.

 

[SailorAlea]

Downloads will never compete with a physical disc.

There are too many non-technological people who will never grasp streaming a video to their TV.

And then the people who prefer having a physical copy of their purchase.

And don't even get me started on delivery and storage. So what happens when your hard-drive runs out of space? Can't download any more movies? The only way you can run out of a space with DVD's/Blu-Ray discs, is running out of space to put them

Downloads will not kill Blu-Ray.

This article sums it up nicely.

"Downloads," as an abstract concept, might not. But Blu-Ray isn't the ultimate physical format.. Another will be along to replace it. Eventually, though--the majority of people will gain exposure to digital downloads--realize their inherent advantages--and you'll see permanent physical media go the way of the dinosaur .

We'll probably see a few more physical media formats like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc before digital distribution takes over.

But your article isn't the final word on the subject. It's full of assumptions--some of which are completely baseless.

1. Does the HD Movie Download allow me the same freedoms in portability that the Blu-Ray Disc does? No. You can only view a Downloaded movie on the device that it was downloaded to.

Not true. There are any number of ways around this. Xbox Live, for instance, lets me have access to anything I've downloaded on my 360 at home, on any 360 when I sign in with my gamertag.

XBL is just an example. Alternatively, depending on the distribution format, all that could be required is a login, then streaming data could follow. Or you could move it to a high-capacity solid state drive and move it like that. SSDs offer greater speed, greater durability and reliability than physical media like Blu-Ray, DVD, etc.

2. Can I borrow and Lend downloaded movies with friends and family? No. You would have to lend or borrow the whole device or console that holds the download.

What exactly is he basing this on? A specific implementation of digital downloads? Nothing about the conceptual method of distribution inhibits sharing except for digital rights management technology--which is proving more and more unpopular and even the enormous music conglomerates are finally starting to abandon.

3. Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours.
For example, Microsoft offers Digital Movie Downloads on their XBoxLIVE service, which costs $50.00 per year. The Downloadable movies vary in price and are not included in the XBoxLIVE subscription fee. Movie Downloads from XBoxLIVE can be viewed an unlimited amount of times for the first 24 hours. Plays after that period will cost the same as the initial download. The downloaded Movie files are in Windows Media VideoHD (aka;VC-1,WMVHD) format at 720p resolution, 6.8Mbps video with 5.1 surround sound. The average Movie download is 4 - 5gb.

Again--this is an assumption based on a specific model. This time, it's Microsoft's 360 service. The limit on rented movies has nothing to do with digital distribution. Is this really an analysis of digital downloads? Or a mindless PS3 vs. 360 rant?

In any case, while movies do expire--TV shows on XBL do not, and I've had permanent access to them, which is really nice. I have access to a large library of South Park and DS9 episodes no matter what 360 I use.

4. Are Digital downloadable Movies available in Full HD, 1080p with lossless Audio? No. Not yet. There is no date for the availability of full resolution Downloads.

Again.. why is he talking specifically about XBL? It's true, that they're only available in 480p or 720p. The difference in quality isn't made up for by the exponential increase in bandwidth--in my opinion. When the technology matures, ISPs get on the ball and provide more bandwidth, as well as larger hard drives for the distribution systems, we'll eventually see 1080p or higher material come standard.

A full catalog of Music does not require a large amount of Hard Drive space. One single HD Movie with 1080p resolution, 7.1 lossless Audio and Bonus Features could, in some cases, require 20gb to over 50gb of space depending on the movie.

"Large amount" is subjective. Hard drive spaces are expanded by orders of magnitude. In a few years, the amount of space for 1080p videos will be viewed as being as inconsequential as space for MP3s look now.

Music Downloads are permanent and do not incur future costs on the owner. Movie downloads have a limited viewing time.

Again--this is based on a specific service. This is like saying "Bittorrent sucks, because (x service has restricted options)."

The biggest difference to the end-user was the jump to digital formats at all--CDs. They were comparatively small, though, to the increase in data.

 

[Dzamija]

I find it strange that everyone is ignoring the fact that Blu-Ray discs are expensive as hell, even blank ones.

 

[Adaptus]

I find it strange that everyone is ignoring the fact that Blu-Ray discs are expensive as hell, even blank ones.

So were CDs when they first launched, as were DVDs.

Give it time.

 

[Dzamija]

Let me ask you straight out, no sarcasm or anything, because I really don't know: Were DVD's or CD's ever $40 or more?

 

[Adaptus]

Actually, I don't know. Perhaps I should've rephrased, since I don't actually knew how expensive Blu Ray discs are, and I don't remember how expensive CDs and DVDs were when they were new, so I can't say exactly.

I do know that new technology is often quite pricey, so my assumption was simply that the discs themselves, too, are expensive.